'Kamala Harris’ real challenge is saying too little,' says journalist, author and academic, Gary Younge. 'And Donald Trump’s real challenge is saying too much.'
Ahead of the high-stakes US presidential election on November 5, Trump and Harris are fighting to connect with voters in strikingly different ways. With just two weeks to go until Americans will head to the polls, the run-up to the election has laid bare the full extent of polarisation in America – despite Harris spending three times as much money in August as Trump on her campaign, the latest polls place Harris and Trump as neck-and-neck. According to figures from FiveThirtyEight, Trump is pulling ahead in two of seven battleground states by two or less percentage points. For those watching, this election is too close to call.
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Up until recently, Harris was a relatively unknown person on the political radar, despite having an established legal career as a prosecutor. After Joe Biden dropped out of the race in July, Harris emerged as a frontrunner to reverse the party’s ailing fortunes. 'In a way,' says Mary Ann Sieghart, journalist and author of The Authority Gap, 'something that has given her momentum is the authority gap itself – the fact she was underestimated at the beginning.
'People had a very low opinion of her based on not much evidence,' she continues. 'And when she came out and proved she was good – particularly in the debate (against Trump) – I think people thought, "oh, I underestimated her".' Thus far, Harris has raised over $1 billion (£770 million) in donor funding for her campaign – surpassing the figures amassed by Barack Obama and Bernie Sanders.
Now, Harris has by-and-large pitched herself as the antithesis of Trump – she is witty and upbeat; he is downcast, incoherent and bristles at any sign of criticism. And, unlike Hillary Clinton’s bid for president, there has been a distinct reticence to address the historic nature of her candidacy. 'A lot of attention has been paid towards activating people around issues, rather than identities,' says Jamilah King, an editorial director at Mother Jones who has followed Harris’ career since she was elected as San Francisco District Attorney in 2003.
In response, the Republican campaign has resorted to an old, but deeply insidious playbook to temper their opponent’s chances of winning – comparing Harris to 'a play toy'; claiming she 'became black', or, in a clip that later went viral, that the party is run by 'a bunch of childless cat ladies'. Trump claims that 'strength' (code here for: males and manliness) is needed to run the country.
'Fear has been one of the guiding lights of the Trump campaign,' says King. 'The more that Vance and Trump can drum up that fear – the fear of a Black woman; the fear of a woman; the fear of change; the fear of something different – the more difficult that will be for some people to take in. But I think it’s also true that a lot of the people who are feeling this way weren’t going to vote for Harris in the first place,' she adds.
'(The tactic) is starting to work among men,' says Sieghart, citing a backdrop of growing misogyny and tides of violence against women. 'Particularly among non-college educated men.'
'But on the other hand,' Sieghart adds. 'There are more women than men in America, women are more likely to turn out to vote than men and women are swinging strongly behind Harris.' While Trump has up to a 16 point lead among men, the inverse is also true – Harris has a 14 point lead among women.
Whether these sexism-driven tactics are effective isn’t clear-cut. 'They haven’t landed in the way that attacks on Hillary landed,' says Younge. 'Because while very few people in America know someone whose husband has been president, like Hillary, they do know people who haven't borne children, either out of choice or medical necessity.
'So when Vance attacks her in that way,' he continues. 'It actually aligns her with large numbers of women.' After the overturning of Roe v Wade in 2022 ending the constitutional right to abortion, attacks based on gender are landing at a different moment, with the rollback of reproductive rights being almost central to the presidential campaign.
Beyond Trump, however, the Democrats seem to have a bigger problem looming. 'A lot of Democrats were happy they didn't have to run with Biden,' says Miles Coleman, who edits political pundit Larry Sabato’s newsletter the Crystal Ball. 'But I think being able to sustain that momentum is important,' says Coleman. 'She had highs earlier this year; she had a good Democratic National Convention; she did well in the debate. But her numbers have since plateaued.' Harris’ vote is also faltering among Latino and Black communities, particularly Black men.
Coleman is pointing to a broader issue surrounding the campaign – a loss of momentum. 'I think she's lost some of the joy from her campaign,' adds Sieghart. 'And that’s a real shame. She sometimes sounds formulaic, but she needs to project authenticity.' While Harris is warmer than previous nominees, which, Sieghart notes, 'is a trait we only expect from female politicians, not male ones', the campaign now looks bereft of vision.
Part of the problem can be attributed to broader discontent among voters with Biden’s legacy. 'The economy is reportedly on the mend, but it's not mending fast enough,' says Younge. 'Inflation is coming down, but mortgage rates are still significantly higher than they were, and she cannot be (seen as) running for Biden's second term.' As a result, Harris has sought to establish a distinction between herself and her predecessor, whose approval ratings stand at record lows. Speaking to Fox News, Harris emphasised her presidency 'will not be a continuation' of Biden’s administration.
Can Harris still win? 'She needs to galvanise her base,' says Younge, citing the complacency that dogged the later stages of Clinton’s campaign, including not visiting Wisconsin – a key battleground state. 'There are very few undecided (voters) and the people who are undecided are less undecided between her and him, and more undecided about whether they’ll vote at all.'
'Many people and constituencies in the Democratic Party are skeptical,' echoes King. 'So the "get out the vote" effort, particularly in key swing states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Arizona is going to be really important – as is watching for election interference.'
At the time of writing, eighteen million votes have already been cast for November 5. Now, the fate of a nation rests on as much motivation, mobilisation and organisation as possible – or as little as a few thousand votes. Ultimately, says King, 'it’s a matter of figuring out whose detractors will stay home.'
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